By Stefan Kubus –
On the heels of Detroit placing veteran forward Mikael Samuelsson, 37, on waivers (3 points in 26 games this season) Jan. 25, I received a tweet asking how the lineup will shake out once Stephen Weiss returns from long-term IR (Dec. 23 sports hernia surgery), with regards to cap compliance. That’s a great question, too, because his rather large $4.9 million cap hit poses a bit of a problem.
Detroit currently has cap relief from Weiss being on long-term IR (LTIR), but once he returns to complete the lineup (if nobody else gets injured long-term by then, a big ‘if’), the team needs to be below the cap’s $64.3 million upper limit (see Capgeek’s concise LTIR explanation).
With Weiss scheduled to return after the Olympic break, which at the earliest would be Feb. 25, that’s close to the March 5 trade deadline. It may be hard to imagine Detroit freeing up much cap space at the deadline via trade since it doesn’t happen all that often, but there also may be no choice. I’ll touch on that bit at the end, and then in more depth in my next piece.
But regardless, head coach Mike Babcock told the media after his team’s Jan. 26 shootout loss to Florida – another game where the Tomas Tatar-Riley Sheahan-Tomas Jurco line was outstanding – what’s going to happen with the lineup decisions.
“What we’re going to do is talk about it and the best guys are going to play. It’s not going to have anything to do with age, it’s just going to do with what you’ve done here lately. They’re pushing real hard, Riley Sheahan, Tats, Jurco… that line was really good.”
If that indeed happens with a healthy lineup, it may take a mix of demoting and trading, but that tweet made me curious in any event, so I decided to give it my best go via Capgeek’s “Armchair GM” tool – a means to roughly calculate how lineup changes affect a team’s salary cap situation.
I came up with different INTERNAL (non-trading) scenarios that could happen – certainly some more likely than others – but before I share, I’d like to establish a few points:
- Detroit’s waiver-exempt players: Luke Glendening (F), Riley Sheahan (F), Tomas Jurco (F), Danny DeKeyser (D), Petr Mrazek (G).
- With 52 career games played (regular season and playoffs, as called for under Article 13.4 of the new CBA**), once DeKeyser hits 60 games, he is no longer waiver-exempt, leaving no rostered defensemen with that perk. DeKeyser’s 60th game will fall on March 7 against New Jersey should he stay in the lineup, just two days after the March 5 trade deadline. With how valuable DeKeyser has been to the Red Wings’ blue line, I imagine there’s a good possibility Detroit will roll with seven ‘D’ for the rest of the season, meaning the waiving or demoting will come up front.
- Detroit arguably has five NHL-quality centermen (and more certainly on the cusp) on the roster when healthy in Pavel Datsyuk, Henrik Zetterberg, Darren Helm, Joakim Andersson and Weiss. Despite Zetterberg’s strong performances at center and in the face-off circle lately, it’s likely he moves back to the wing with Datsyuk once Weiss returns. Andersson hasn’t been overwhelmingly impressive, but has been stable in a defensive role and in the face-off circle (51.4-percent) for an average, 50.9-percent face-off team. Plus, Babcock relies on him heavily for defensive duties when in the lineup. For those reasons, I see no room for the Luke Glendening and Riley Sheahan – both have impressed Babcock in their stints with Detroit – in the lineup at that time. But with how tremendous they’ve been, that’s something I’d like to see changed either at the trade deadline or during the off-season.
- Under the AHL’s development rule, “of the 18 skaters that teams may dress for a game, 13 must be qualified as ‘development players.’ Of those 13, 12 must have played in 260 or fewer professional games (including AHL, NHL and European elite leagues), and one must have played in 320 or fewer professional games.” With Grand Rapids already pressed up against this limit, it’s hard to send struggling veterans Dan Cleary or Todd Bertuzzi down to Grand Rapids without making another complementary, corresponding move.
- Patrick Eaves has come on lately for Detroit, but will likely face a Grand Rapids demotion. Even with Samuelsson in Grand Rapids and Weiss back in, if Detroit sent down all five of the aforementioned waiver-exempt players, the team would be $794,000 over the cap, so somebody would have to be waived or traded to get under. Veterans Todd Bertuzzi and Dan Cleary haven’t provided much up front, but it just seems unlikely they are actually sent down to Grand Rapids, especially given the AHL development rule.
- It’s especially doubtful that Todd Bertuzzi would be waived, given his ’35-plus’ contract and the AHL development rule, and, as I understand it, he can’t be bought out until the completion of the Stanley Cup Finals in June 2014 when the official two-week buyout period begins. He’s in the exact same position as Samuelsson was and would provide Detroit with only $100,000 in cap space.
**Though I listed the waiver-exempt Red Wings above, for your personal reference, here’s the chart provided in the new CBA under Article 13.4 (Exempt Players) that determines when players lose their waiver-exempt status:
With that all said, here are the best-possible, cap-compliant roster projections I came up with once the entire team is healthy (I know, it doesn’t seem possible, does it?). Keep in mind the lines aren’t necessarily perfect, I’m surely no general manager and that these are available options WITHOUT making a trade. And remember, of course, that the waived players can clear and report to Grand Rapids, so they won’t necessarily be claimed by another team, but there is that risk. All demotions and waived players listed in relation to the current, Feb. 1 roster and all players listed as demotions are waiver-exempt:
Red Wings Healthy Roster V.1.01
Waivers: Eaves (F)
Demotions: Jurco (F), Sheahan (F), DeKeyser (D)
Roster size: 22 (1 under 23-man max.)
Cap space: $664,333
*This example sees the waiver-exempt DeKeyser sent to the AHL before he played his 60th career game – again (provided he stays in the lineup) that would come on March 7 against New Jersey just after the March 5 trade deadline, and Weiss should have completed the Red Wings’ collective recovery by then, barring any setbacks. DeKeyser has simply played too well to be demoted (shouldn’t even be a thought), but when it comes to the salary cap and the risk of losing another player on waivers, he could be unfortunately forced down, though I would be shocked if it happened.
Waivers: Cleary (F), Eaves (F)
Demotions: Jurco (F), Sheahan (F)
Roster size: 22 (1 under 23-man max.)
Cap space: $89,333
*This might be the best-possible option overall. As I said above, I can’t imagine Dan Cleary being sent down given the AHL veteran limit, but with the way the young Griffins have played in comparison to him, a guy like Glendening (whom Babcock has raved about all season long) would likely be better suited to a fourth-line role than Cleary. And frankly, Glendening has earned his spot. Bertuzzi would again stay on as the 13th forward in this scenario. Also, Cleary’s one-year deal expires at the end of the season anyway, making the assignment to Grand Rapids an attractive option if it can be done.
Given Cleary and Eaves are waived as in this scenario, Glendening could stay, but neither Jurco nor Sheahan could instead, as both have slightly-higher cap hits. This works great because Sheahan and Jurco – they’ll get a lot more minutes in Grand Rapids to develop, though they’ve been playing quite a bit for the Red Wings lately – project to provide more offense down the road, whereas Glendening is strictly a defensive specialist (an important one, too). Despite Glendening playing center with Detroit this season, he was actually a winger at the University of Michigan and didn’t convert to center until he turned pro.
Waivers: Cleary (F)
Demotions: Jurco (F), Glendening (F), Sheahan (F), DeKeyser (D)
Roster size: 21 (2 under 23-man max.)
Cap space: $169,333
*This scenario (perhaps unrealistically) sees Cleary waived again and Eaves staying on if DeKeyser is sent down before he played in his 60th career game. Bertuzzi or Eaves would be the 13th forward. There’s no reason DeKeyser should be sent down, even if comes down to a numbers game against the cap, but again, it prevents another player from potentially saying farewell via waivers.
Waivers: Kyle Quincey (D), Eaves (F)
Demotions: Jurco (F), Sheahan (F)
Roster size: 22 (1 under 23-man max.)
Cap space: $89,333
*When looking at his near-$4M cap hit, Quincey just hasn’t performed up to that salary, especially considering some comparable cap hits to his on defense are Christian Ehrhoff (BUF), Victor Hedman (TB), Josh Gorges (MTL), Roman Josi (NSH), Zbynek Michalek (PHX) and Brooks Orpik (PIT). He has played better as of late, but looking at those other names and with Quincey’s current one-year deal expiring after this season anyway, putting him on waivers to free up cap space might not be the worst option if the Griffins can stay under the veteran limit – especially given how well Lashoff and DeKeyser have played. Also, this allows the Red Wings to keep veterans Bertuzzi and Cleary as extra forwards if they so wish, while also keeping Glendening up in Detroit. If not the above V1.1 lineup, this could be the best internal option.
While we obviously won’t know what Ken Holland ultimately decides to do when Weiss returns, this gives you a pretty good idea of the what some of the internal options are as of right now. And from that, it’s easy to conclude that:
- A.) Patrick Eaves will likely end up on the waiver wire if the team is healthy.
- B.) Youngsters Luke Glendening, Riley Sheahan and Tomas Jurco might have to be sent back to the AHL, simply due to cap issues and too many forwards, despite their strong showings. As I showed above, there’s a realistic, internal way to keep Glendening in the lineup at the very least, but a trade would probably need to be made to get Sheahan or Jurco in the lineup, as well, provided the team is healthy. And even so, it gets crowded up front, but a little competition for playing time never hurt anybody.
- C.) If not traded, a veteran like Cleary could face the same fate as Samuelsson with the way he has struggled and the young Griffins have impressed. Bertuzzi also could, but like Samuelsson, he would provide a minimal $100,000 in cap relief. Again, that’s only possible if Holland can pull off some moves to keep the Griffins under the veteran limit, too.
- D.) Some sort of trade could be on the horizon to fix the situation, but with the push for a playoff spot raging on, it’s also hard to envision Holland being able to dump salary. I will say this, though, with regards to trading (opens an entirely new door, obviously): with the emergences of Lashoff and DeKeyser, and promising prospects Xavier Ouellet, Ryan Sproul, Adam Almquist and Alexey Marchenko in the system also on defense, the recently-scratched Jakub Kindl or Kyle Quincey (pending UFA) could be dealt to free up some room. If it takes a trade up front, the fact that Cleary garnered interest during the off-season from other clubs could bode well for moving him, despite his struggles this year.
- E.) Given the above scenarios, if Babcock really means the best players are going to play, then it will either take a trade or two to make that happen, or a massive resurgence from players like Weiss, Cleary and Bertuzzi to outplay Sheahan, Jurco and Glendening in their respective roles.
I’d love to hear your thoughts on this and what you all can come up with by creating your own lineup on Capgeek here. Tweet me @SKubus or at @MiHockeyNow with your thoughts and links to your own created lineups. My next post will briefly look at the trading possibility.